5 simulations recorded · since 2026-08-26 · Recalculated: 2026-08-30
Original data
What the simulator data says
Every simulation somebody chooses to save leaves an anonymous record of the numbers they used and the result they got. This page is the sum of all of them, recalculated every time the site is published.
What can be said today
No measure has a large enough sample to publish yet. When one does, it will appear here as a single sentence.
Simulator by simulator
Monte Carlo retirement simulation
The 4% rule gets quoted as if it were a law, when it is the result of one study of one market, one period and one portfolio. This simulator lets each person choose their own withdrawal rate, horizon and portfolio, and shows what share of scenarios the money survives. What gets recorded is therefore the rate people pick when the choice is theirs, and how many of those plans hold up: the gap between the two figures is the lesson.
This simulator does not have a large enough sample to publish averages yet. What is missing is simulations rather than code: every time somebody uses the tool and chooses to save their scenario, this section gets closer to having something to say.
Open the simulator 2 simulations recorded
Freedom Calendar
Almost everybody accepts in the abstract that small repeated spending costs years of work. This simulator puts the number on it: each habit has a slider, and the output is the date you would stop needing your salary. The data shows the thing no theory predicts well - which habits people cut immediately, and which they refuse to give up even after seeing the price in years.
This simulator does not have a large enough sample to publish averages yet. What is missing is simulations rather than code: every time somebody uses the tool and chooses to save their scenario, this section gets closer to having something to say.
Market Time Machine
Portfolio construction is easy to have opinions about and hard to check, because checking takes decades. Here you build one and run it through real market history with a 60/40 portfolio beside it as a benchmark. The interesting part of the record is not which portfolio wins - that depends on the period - but how many people build their own mix rather than take a template, and how many of those mixes beat the benchmark.
This simulator does not have a large enough sample to publish averages yet. What is missing is simulations rather than code: every time somebody uses the tool and chooses to save their scenario, this section gets closer to having something to say.
Passive income engine
Financial independence is two lines crossing: what you spend each month and what your assets produce each month. This simulator forces you to move both, because every lifestyle upgrade raises the line you have to reach. The record keeps which income source ends up largest at the crossover - the question no survey answers well: what people reach for when the choice is free.
This simulator does not have a large enough sample to publish averages yet. What is missing is simulations rather than code: every time somebody uses the tool and chooses to save their scenario, this section gets closer to having something to say.
Open the simulator 1 simulations recorded
Financial decisions simulator
This simulator calculates nothing: it poses situations and forces a decision, with money and happiness as the scoreboards. It is the one closest to the psychology of money, which is why the record of the decisions is the most revealing of the five. How the decisions split between investing, paying debt, spending and taking risk says what this audience considers prudent, and the happiness score says how much it is willing to pay for that.
This simulator does not have a large enough sample to publish averages yet. What is missing is simulations rather than code: every time somebody uses the tool and chooses to save their scenario, this section gets closer to having something to say.
Open the simulator 2 simulations recorded
How this is calculated
Every figure comes from the table the simulators write to: the settings that went in and the result that came out. There are no names, no email addresses, no personal identifiers and no cookies behind these numbers.
No measure is published until its sample is large enough. Each one carries its own minimum and simply does not appear below it: an "average" of three simulations would describe three people’s afternoon, not a pattern.
Money figures are computed inside one language only. The three versions of the site show three different currency symbols for the same input, so a pooled average would be an average of currencies. Everything unit-free - percentages, ages, years, choices - does pool all three languages.
The sample next to each figure counts the simulations that carried that field, not the whole table. A field that started being recorded later therefore has a smaller sample, and you can see it.
What these numbers are not
They are not a survey. Somebody who lands on a financial independence simulator and chooses to save their scenario is not a sample of the population: they are people interested in the subject, probably savers, probably with more slack than average. The self-selection bias is large and cannot be corrected for.
They are not real behavior. They are decisions taken inside a model, with no consequences. People take more risk in a simulation than with their own money, which makes these figures useful for understanding preferences and intuitions and useless for predicting what anybody will actually do.
They are not a recommendation. That most people pick a given withdrawal rate, portfolio or habit does not make it right for you. What is published here is what people choose, not what you should choose.
How much sample there is, and how much is missing
This table is the actual state of the data rather than a promise about it. It says how many simulations each tool has recorded, how many of its measures are being published already, and how many more simulations it takes for the next one to appear.
| Simulator | Simulations | Measures shown | To the next measure |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monte Carlo retirement simulation | 2 | 0 / 8 | 6 simulations |
| Freedom Calendar | 0 | 0 / 8 | 8 simulations |
| Market Time Machine | 0 | 0 / 6 | 8 simulations |
| Passive income engine | 1 | 0 / 6 | 7 simulations |
| Financial decisions simulator | 2 | 0 / 3 | 8 simulations |
Add a simulation
Saving one simulation moves a figure on this page. No survey anywhere asks what withdrawal rate somebody picks in the minute after watching their own retirement fail in half the scenarios, so the only way that number comes to exist is if the people using the tool leave it here. The table above says exactly which measure the next simulation unlocks.
Two of the tools have a button that saves the scenario into this public data, and the other three save the run when a score is submitted to their leaderboard. Both are opt-in, and neither stores anything personal.
Monte Carlo retirement simulation · Freedom Calendar · Market Time Machine · Passive income engine · Financial decisions simulator